Recent Bank of Russia communications and data releases have shaped trader positioning ahead of the September 11 meeting, with the current 14% key rate reflecting a cautious shift following the modest 25 basis point cut in July. Elevated inflation expectations, one-off fuel price pressures pushing the 2026 inflation forecast to 6–7%, and a more expansionary fiscal stance have prompted signals of slower monetary easing despite underlying inflation measures holding near the 4–5% annualized range and moderate GDP growth. Analysts highlight risks from supply constraints and budget dynamics that limit scope for aggressive cuts, supporting the market's 64% probability on no change while allowing a 36% chance of another modest reduction if incoming data shows sustained disinflation. The negligible 1.4% odds on a hike align with the absence of overheating signals or external shocks warranting tightening.