High Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 KL.
$21,009 KL.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
2%
0.7%–1.0%
2%
1.1%–1.4%
6%
1.5%–1.8%
40%
1.9%–2.2%
38%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2.7%
3%
1.9%–2.2% 37.5%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
1.1%–1.4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 KL.
$21,009 KL.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$14,390 KL.
2%
0.7%–1.0%
$661 KL.
2%
1.1%–1.4%
$720 KL.
6%
1.5%–1.8%
$1,045 KL.
40%
1.9%–2.2%
$1,635 KL.
38%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 KL.
18%
≥2.7%
$1,827 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Thị trường mở: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,009Ngày kết thúc
May 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Khối lượng
$21,009Ngày kết thúc
May 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High Selic rates near 14.5–15% have tightened credit conditions and weighed on domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus for Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth around the closely matched 1.5%–1.8% and 1.9%–2.2% bands at 40.0% and 37.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures including minimum-wage hikes and expanded credit support have lifted high-frequency indicators such as March retail sales and April PMIs above 52, while agricultural base effects and resilient external demand provide additional lift. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus hover at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. The IBGE release scheduled for May 29 remains the key catalyst, with any stronger-than-expected inflation print likely reinforcing the current market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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