Recent May 2026 core CPI data at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the June reading near 3.0%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project 2.85% for June, while monthly volatility in shelter, transportation services, and medical care components—combined with fading base effects—creates tight clustering around 2.9–3.1%. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no single outcome exceeding 50% amid uncertainty over persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through. The closely contested probabilities underscore how incoming labor market data and June CPI components could shift the outcome by 0.1–0.2 percentage points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật3.0% 48%
2.9% 46%
3.1% 46%
3.2% 31%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 15, 2026
≤2.4%
28%
2.5%
29%
2.6%
28%
2.7%
28%
2.8%
28%
2.9%
46%
3.0%
48%
3.1%
46%
3.2%
31%
≥3.3%
29%
3.0% 48%
2.9% 46%
3.1% 46%
3.2% 31%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 15, 2026
≤2.4%
$0 KL.
28%
2.5%
$0 KL.
29%
2.6%
$0 KL.
28%
2.7%
$1 KL.
28%
2.8%
$0 KL.
28%
2.9%
$0 KL.
46%
3.0%
$0 KL.
48%
3.1%
$41 KL.
46%
3.2%
$44 KL.
31%
≥3.3%
$44 KL.
29%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 core CPI data at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the June reading near 3.0%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project 2.85% for June, while monthly volatility in shelter, transportation services, and medical care components—combined with fading base effects—creates tight clustering around 2.9–3.1%. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no single outcome exceeding 50% amid uncertainty over persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through. The closely contested probabilities underscore how incoming labor market data and June CPI components could shift the outcome by 0.1–0.2 percentage points.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
Khối lượng
$130Ngày kết thúc
Jul 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 core CPI data at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the June reading near 3.0%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project 2.85% for June, while monthly volatility in shelter, transportation services, and medical care components—combined with fading base effects—creates tight clustering around 2.9–3.1%. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no single outcome exceeding 50% amid uncertainty over persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through. The closely contested probabilities underscore how incoming labor market data and June CPI components could shift the outcome by 0.1–0.2 percentage points.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$130Ngày kết thúc
Jul 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 core CPI data at 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025, has anchored trader expectations for the June reading near 3.0%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project 2.85% for June, while monthly volatility in shelter, transportation services, and medical care components—combined with fading base effects—creates tight clustering around 2.9–3.1%. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no single outcome exceeding 50% amid uncertainty over persistent services inflation and potential tariff pass-through. The closely contested probabilities underscore how incoming labor market data and June CPI components could shift the outcome by 0.1–0.2 percentage points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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