Trump remains president with an implied 98.5% probability of serving through September 30, 2026, driven by the extremely short timeline and institutional barriers to removal. Impeachment resolutions introduced in Congress face committee review and require House passage plus a two-thirds Senate conviction vote, a process that historically spans months and lacks the necessary bipartisan support in the current Congress. No credible reports indicate health issues, resignation pressure, or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Midterm elections remain weeks away and would not alter the presidency before the cutoff. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency or unprecedented bipartisan action on an acute crisis, though both remain remote given recent executive activity and congressional dynamics.