The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTiago 28%
Professor Guilherme Amorim 23%
Sebastião Coelho 23%
Zanata 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
Tiago
28%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
23%
Sebastião Coelho
23%
Zanata
23%
Marley
22%
Guto Felício dos Santos
21%
Avenir Rosa
21%
Bia Kicis
21%
Leila do Vôlei
21%
David Horn
21%
Erika Kokay
21%
Ronaldo Fonseca
21%
Michelle Bolsonaro
18%
Tiago 28%
Professor Guilherme Amorim 23%
Sebastião Coelho 23%
Zanata 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
Tiago
$0 KL.
28%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$0 KL.
23%
Sebastião Coelho
$0 KL.
23%
Zanata
$0 KL.
23%
Marley
$0 KL.
22%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$0 KL.
21%
Avenir Rosa
$0 KL.
21%
Bia Kicis
$0 KL.
21%
Leila do Vôlei
$0 KL.
21%
David Horn
$0 KL.
21%
Erika Kokay
$0 KL.
21%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$0 KL.
21%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$0 KL.
18%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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