India Meteorological Department forecasts for Lucknow on May 17 indicate a maximum temperature near or below 41°C under mainly clear pre-monsoon conditions across the Ganges Plain. This official outlook, consistent with recent observations of suppressed daytime heating from lingering moisture and thunderstorm activity earlier in the month, underpins the overwhelming market consensus for the 41°C-or-below outcome. Historical climatology places typical May highs in the 40–43°C range, yet current model guidance shows minimal spread and little potential for rapid intensification. Traders assign negligible probability to higher thresholds because any deviation would require unexpected drier air and stronger solar insolation not supported by the latest runs. Final resolution depends on the official reading at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport, with the next IMD update offering the primary opportunity for any shift before sunset.