Recent meteorological model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to a daytime high in Beijing on May 17 centered between 19°C and 21°C, driven by a transitional spring air mass with light northerly flow and scattered cloud cover that limits surface heating. Light rain or drizzle expected in some updated runs could further cap the peak by reducing solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical May averages for the city hover near 26°C, but this particular pattern deviates due to lingering cooler northerly influences. Traders appear to weigh the balance between these near-term forecast adjustments and the inherent spread in ensemble predictions, which typically narrows only hours before the daily maximum is recorded at official stations.