PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Manila on May 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 15?
35°C 40%
36°C 26%
34°C 25%
33°C 4.5%
MỚI
MỚI
May 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
5%
34°C
25%
35°C
40%
36°C
26%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 40%
36°C 26%
34°C 25%
33°C 4.5%
MỚI
MỚI
May 15, 2026
29°C or below
$275 KL.
<1%
30°C
$348 KL.
<1%
31°C
$173 KL.
<1%
32°C
$628 KL.
2%
33°C
$653 KL.
5%
34°C
$460 KL.
25%
35°C
$127 KL.
40%
36°C
$409 KL.
26%
37°C
$761 KL.
4%
38°C
$138 KL.
1%
39°C or higher
$181 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,132Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$4,132Ngày kết thúc
May 15, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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