Recent model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates mild spring conditions over Warsaw on May 19, with daytime highs likely clustering between 18°C and 20°C depending on cloud cover and any light precipitation from a weak frontal system. These closely matched outcomes stem from subtle differences in forecast timing of warm-air advection versus cooler northerly flow, plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central districts. Historical May averages near 19°C provide baseline context, while the spread in trader-implied probabilities captures model divergence on exact peak temperature and resolution criteria tied to official meteorological station readings. Updated high-resolution runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology briefings in the next 24 hours could refine the outlook.