Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and UK Met Office project a daytime high of 18–20°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport on May 18, driven by a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal system and above-average May insolation under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with these runs, showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows near 9°C to peak values in the late afternoon. This places the market-implied 80.5% probability on 19°C or higher in line with model consensus, while the 13.5% odds on exactly 18°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any showers. Updated model runs expected later today will refine the final range ahead of the market’s resolution at midnight local time.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
19°C or higher 84%
18°C 7%
17°C 5%
16°C 1.6%
MỚI
MỚI
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
84%
19°C or higher 84%
18°C 7%
17°C 5%
16°C 1.6%
MỚI
MỚI
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
$582 KL.
<1%
10°C
$602 KL.
<1%
11°C
$1,087 KL.
<1%
12°C
$446 KL.
<1%
13°C
$123 KL.
1%
14°C
$736 KL.
1%
15°C
$566 KL.
1%
16°C
$781 KL.
2%
17°C
$494 KL.
5%
18°C
$309 KL.
7%
19°C or higher
$368 KL.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and UK Met Office project a daytime high of 18–20°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport on May 18, driven by a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal system and above-average May insolation under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with these runs, showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows near 9°C to peak values in the late afternoon. This places the market-implied 80.5% probability on 19°C or higher in line with model consensus, while the 13.5% odds on exactly 18°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any showers. Updated model runs expected later today will refine the final range ahead of the market’s resolution at midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Khối lượng
$6,094Ngày kết thúc
May 18, 2026Thị trường mở
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and UK Met Office project a daytime high of 18–20°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport on May 18, driven by a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal system and above-average May insolation under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with these runs, showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows near 9°C to peak values in the late afternoon. This places the market-implied 80.5% probability on 19°C or higher in line with model consensus, while the 13.5% odds on exactly 18°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any showers. Updated model runs expected later today will refine the final range ahead of the market’s resolution at midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$6,094Ngày kết thúc
May 18, 2026Thị trường mở
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWACurrent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and UK Met Office project a daytime high of 18–20°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport on May 18, driven by a strengthening southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal system and above-average May insolation under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with these runs, showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows near 9°C to peak values in the late afternoon. This places the market-implied 80.5% probability on 19°C or higher in line with model consensus, while the 13.5% odds on exactly 18°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any showers. Updated model runs expected later today will refine the final range ahead of the market’s resolution at midnight local time.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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