The market assigns an 82.5% implied probability to exactly one global earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater during the May 11–17 window, reflecting the typical worldwide rate of roughly one to two such events per week drawn from long-term USGS catalogs. With official monitoring through mid-period showing no events crossing the 6.5 threshold and only scattered activity below 6.0, traders anticipate a single qualifying quake by resolution. The modest 13.5% chance assigned to two events accounts for possible late clustering, while near-zero odds for zero or three-plus outcomes align with the low likelihood of a fully quiet week or rapid succession given current tectonic conditions. Final USGS-reviewed data will confirm the count against the market’s resolution criteria.