Global seismic catalogs from the U.S. Geological Survey record five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones including events in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan. This tally aligns with the long-term annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes worldwide, implying a realistic chance of three or more additional events before June 30 given typical monthly rates and inherent clustering in tectonic activity. A three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has not altered the underlying Poisson-distributed seismicity, leaving trader consensus favoring a total of eight or more by resolution date. Continuous USGS catalog updates will track any new magnitude thresholds or epicenters that could shift these implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu trận động đất từ 7,0 trở lên vào ngày 30 tháng 6?
Có bao nhiêu trận động đất từ 7,0 trở lên vào ngày 30 tháng 6?
$1,852,952 KL.
$1,852,952 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
7
17%
8+
82%
$1,852,952 KL.
$1,852,952 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
7
$288,270 KL.
17%
8+
$551,097 KL.
82%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic catalogs from the U.S. Geological Survey record five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones including events in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan. This tally aligns with the long-term annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes worldwide, implying a realistic chance of three or more additional events before June 30 given typical monthly rates and inherent clustering in tectonic activity. A three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has not altered the underlying Poisson-distributed seismicity, leaving trader consensus favoring a total of eight or more by resolution date. Continuous USGS catalog updates will track any new magnitude thresholds or epicenters that could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,852,952Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic catalogs from the U.S. Geological Survey record five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones including events in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan. This tally aligns with the long-term annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes worldwide, implying a realistic chance of three or more additional events before June 30 given typical monthly rates and inherent clustering in tectonic activity. A three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has not altered the underlying Poisson-distributed seismicity, leaving trader consensus favoring a total of eight or more by resolution date. Continuous USGS catalog updates will track any new magnitude thresholds or epicenters that could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Khối lượng
$1,852,952Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global seismic catalogs from the U.S. Geological Survey record five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones including events in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan. This tally aligns with the long-term annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes worldwide, implying a realistic chance of three or more additional events before June 30 given typical monthly rates and inherent clustering in tectonic activity. A three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has not altered the underlying Poisson-distributed seismicity, leaving trader consensus favoring a total of eight or more by resolution date. Continuous USGS catalog updates will track any new magnitude thresholds or epicenters that could shift these implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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