Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in May tornado counts, with market-implied odds evenly split across bins from under 200 to over 410, centering near the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 265 twisters—the peak month when activity shifts to the Plains and Midwest amid clashing Gulf moisture, high instability (CAPE values often exceeding 2,000 J/kg), and jet stream shear. April 2026's unusually active pace, with 451 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date by April 24 including major outbreaks like April 17 in the Upper Midwest, hints at favorable severe patterns but does not reliably predict May totals, which vary widely (historical lows ~150, highs over 450). AccuWeather's seasonal forecast anticipates an active year overall (1,050–1,250 total), yet key differentiators—persistent Rocky Mountain troughs for shear versus zonal flow suppressing setups—remain unresolved; watch NOAA Storm Prediction Center's Day 3–8 outlooks starting late April for early May signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
200–229 45%
260–289 41%
230–259 39%
290–319 24%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 8, 2026
<200
34%
200–229
45%
230–259
39%
260–289
41%
290–319
24%
320–349
12%
350–379
10%
380–410
9%
410+
10%
200–229 45%
260–289 41%
230–259 39%
290–319 24%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$15 KL.
34%
200–229
$0 KL.
45%
230–259
$0 KL.
39%
260–289
$0 KL.
41%
290–319
$0 KL.
24%
320–349
$0 KL.
12%
350–379
$0 KL.
10%
380–410
$0 KL.
9%
410+
$0 KL.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in May tornado counts, with market-implied odds evenly split across bins from under 200 to over 410, centering near the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 265 twisters—the peak month when activity shifts to the Plains and Midwest amid clashing Gulf moisture, high instability (CAPE values often exceeding 2,000 J/kg), and jet stream shear. April 2026's unusually active pace, with 451 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date by April 24 including major outbreaks like April 17 in the Upper Midwest, hints at favorable severe patterns but does not reliably predict May totals, which vary widely (historical lows ~150, highs over 450). AccuWeather's seasonal forecast anticipates an active year overall (1,050–1,250 total), yet key differentiators—persistent Rocky Mountain troughs for shear versus zonal flow suppressing setups—remain unresolved; watch NOAA Storm Prediction Center's Day 3–8 outlooks starting late April for early May signals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$15Ngày kết thúc
Jun 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in May tornado counts, with market-implied odds evenly split across bins from under 200 to over 410, centering near the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 265 twisters—the peak month when activity shifts to the Plains and Midwest amid clashing Gulf moisture, high instability (CAPE values often exceeding 2,000 J/kg), and jet stream shear. April 2026's unusually active pace, with 451 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date by April 24 including major outbreaks like April 17 in the Upper Midwest, hints at favorable severe patterns but does not reliably predict May totals, which vary widely (historical lows ~150, highs over 450). AccuWeather's seasonal forecast anticipates an active year overall (1,050–1,250 total), yet key differentiators—persistent Rocky Mountain troughs for shear versus zonal flow suppressing setups—remain unresolved; watch NOAA Storm Prediction Center's Day 3–8 outlooks starting late April for early May signals.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$15Ngày kết thúc
Jun 8, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in May tornado counts, with market-implied odds evenly split across bins from under 200 to over 410, centering near the 1991–2020 NOAA average of about 265 twisters—the peak month when activity shifts to the Plains and Midwest amid clashing Gulf moisture, high instability (CAPE values often exceeding 2,000 J/kg), and jet stream shear. April 2026's unusually active pace, with 451 confirmed tornadoes year-to-date by April 24 including major outbreaks like April 17 in the Upper Midwest, hints at favorable severe patterns but does not reliably predict May totals, which vary widely (historical lows ~150, highs over 450). AccuWeather's seasonal forecast anticipates an active year overall (1,050–1,250 total), yet key differentiators—persistent Rocky Mountain troughs for shear versus zonal flow suppressing setups—remain unresolved; watch NOAA Storm Prediction Center's Day 3–8 outlooks starting late April for early May signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp