Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake during the May 11–17 window, a 6.7 event on May 15 offshore Honshu, Japan. This single confirmed occurrence drives the market’s 91.5% implied probability for exactly one such quake, consistent with typical weekly rates for events in the 6.5–7.0 range. No additional quakes above the threshold have registered in the final days, though late-week activity in tectonically active zones could still produce another before resolution. Historical data indicate roughly 0.5–1.5 events of this size occur worldwide each week on average, underscoring why traders assign minimal odds to zero or multiple outcomes.