**Ongoing Houthi threats and a deadly August 11 attack on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have kept weekly transits suppressed, positioning the <180 outcome (46% implied probability) as the market leader.** Heightened risks from missile strikes, including the first reported fatalities in over a year, have prompted carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or limit exposure, driving daily volumes down to the low-to-mid 20s on many days—well below pre-2026 norms. Recent data showing 20–40 crossings amid “dark” transits, shadow fleet activity, and sanctions-related caution reflect sustained caution, with tanker flows particularly affected by the July Saudi-focused blockade. Broader geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and elevated war-risk premiums further discourage transits, while any stabilization around 25–28 vessels per day supports the secondary 180–199 bin (23%). The lower 200+ probabilities align with limited recovery signals despite occasional upticks. Key near-term catalysts include follow-on security advisories and any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities that could influence final weekly tallies.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 46%
180-199 23%
220+ 12%
200-219 9.9%
$11,067 KL.
$11,067 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
46%
180-199
23%
200-219
7%
220+
11%
<180 46%
180-199 23%
220+ 12%
200-219 9.9%
$11,067 KL.
$11,067 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$5,293 KL.
46%
180-199
$1,839 KL.
23%
200-219
$749 KL.
7%
220+
$3,186 KL.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and a deadly August 11 attack on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have kept weekly transits suppressed, positioning the <180 outcome (46% implied probability) as the market leader.** Heightened risks from missile strikes, including the first reported fatalities in over a year, have prompted carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or limit exposure, driving daily volumes down to the low-to-mid 20s on many days—well below pre-2026 norms. Recent data showing 20–40 crossings amid “dark” transits, shadow fleet activity, and sanctions-related caution reflect sustained caution, with tanker flows particularly affected by the July Saudi-focused blockade.
Broader geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and elevated war-risk premiums further discourage transits, while any stabilization around 25–28 vessels per day supports the secondary 180–199 bin (23%). The lower 200+ probabilities align with limited recovery signals despite occasional upticks. Key near-term catalysts include follow-on security advisories and any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities that could influence final weekly tallies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,067Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and a deadly August 11 attack on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have kept weekly transits suppressed, positioning the <180 outcome (46% implied probability) as the market leader.** Heightened risks from missile strikes, including the first reported fatalities in over a year, have prompted carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or limit exposure, driving daily volumes down to the low-to-mid 20s on many days—well below pre-2026 norms. Recent data showing 20–40 crossings amid “dark” transits, shadow fleet activity, and sanctions-related caution reflect sustained caution, with tanker flows particularly affected by the July Saudi-focused blockade.
Broader geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and elevated war-risk premiums further discourage transits, while any stabilization around 25–28 vessels per day supports the secondary 180–199 bin (23%). The lower 200+ probabilities align with limited recovery signals despite occasional upticks. Key near-term catalysts include follow-on security advisories and any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities that could influence final weekly tallies.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$11,067Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi threats and a deadly August 11 attack on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have kept weekly transits suppressed, positioning the <180 outcome (46% implied probability) as the market leader.** Heightened risks from missile strikes, including the first reported fatalities in over a year, have prompted carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or limit exposure, driving daily volumes down to the low-to-mid 20s on many days—well below pre-2026 norms. Recent data showing 20–40 crossings amid “dark” transits, shadow fleet activity, and sanctions-related caution reflect sustained caution, with tanker flows particularly affected by the July Saudi-focused blockade. Broader geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict and elevated war-risk premiums further discourage transits, while any stabilization around 25–28 vessels per day supports the secondary 180–199 bin (23%). The lower 200+ probabilities align with limited recovery signals despite occasional upticks. Key near-term catalysts include follow-on security advisories and any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities that could influence final weekly tallies.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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