Ongoing Houthi attacks and a partial blockade targeting Saudi-linked tonnage since July 2026 have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 vessels per day, well below pre-2023 averages, as carriers weigh rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope against elevated war-risk premiums. Recent weeks show modest stabilization, with some Asia-Europe liner services restored via Suez and total weekly volumes clustering around 170-210 amid mixed AIS visibility and dark transits. Trader sentiment reflected in the closely matched 34.5% and 31.0% odds on the 170-189 and 190-209 buckets captures uncertainty over escalation risks versus incremental recovery signals, such as restarted East-West pipeline flows and carrier announcements, while tanker volumes remain disproportionately constrained.