Trader consensus assigns a 97.2% implied probability to 100–129 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026, aligning closely with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts of 109–111 confirmed events. This outcome matches the historical July average of roughly 119, reflecting the typical seasonal northward shift of the jet stream that reduces favorable wind shear and instability compared with peak spring months. Limited tropical cyclone activity and fewer Midwest outbreaks further supported subdued totals relative to earlier 2026 surges. Official National Centers for Environmental Information verification, expected in coming weeks, remains the key upcoming data point; modest upward revisions from delayed reports could still occur within the same bin, while larger adjustments are considered low-probability given current observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in July?
How many Tornadoes in the US in July?
100–129 97.2%
130–159 2.0%
280–310 1.2%
190–219 1.1%
$3,945 KL.
$3,945 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
1%
100–129
97%
130–159
2%
160–189
1%
190–219
1%
220–249
1%
250–279
1%
280–310
1%
310+
1%
100–129 97.2%
130–159 2.0%
280–310 1.2%
190–219 1.1%
$3,945 KL.
$3,945 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
$810 KL.
1%
100–129
$675 KL.
97%
130–159
$290 KL.
2%
160–189
$356 KL.
1%
190–219
$320 KL.
1%
220–249
$303 KL.
1%
250–279
$426 KL.
1%
280–310
$423 KL.
1%
310+
$342 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus assigns a 97.2% implied probability to 100–129 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026, aligning closely with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts of 109–111 confirmed events. This outcome matches the historical July average of roughly 119, reflecting the typical seasonal northward shift of the jet stream that reduces favorable wind shear and instability compared with peak spring months. Limited tropical cyclone activity and fewer Midwest outbreaks further supported subdued totals relative to earlier 2026 surges. Official National Centers for Environmental Information verification, expected in coming weeks, remains the key upcoming data point; modest upward revisions from delayed reports could still occur within the same bin, while larger adjustments are considered low-probability given current observations.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,945Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus assigns a 97.2% implied probability to 100–129 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026, aligning closely with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts of 109–111 confirmed events. This outcome matches the historical July average of roughly 119, reflecting the typical seasonal northward shift of the jet stream that reduces favorable wind shear and instability compared with peak spring months. Limited tropical cyclone activity and fewer Midwest outbreaks further supported subdued totals relative to earlier 2026 surges. Official National Centers for Environmental Information verification, expected in coming weeks, remains the key upcoming data point; modest upward revisions from delayed reports could still occur within the same bin, while larger adjustments are considered low-probability given current observations.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$3,945Ngày kết thúc
Aug 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 97.2% implied probability to 100–129 U.S. tornadoes in July 2026, aligning closely with preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts of 109–111 confirmed events. This outcome matches the historical July average of roughly 119, reflecting the typical seasonal northward shift of the jet stream that reduces favorable wind shear and instability compared with peak spring months. Limited tropical cyclone activity and fewer Midwest outbreaks further supported subdued totals relative to earlier 2026 surges. Official National Centers for Environmental Information verification, expected in coming weeks, remains the key upcoming data point; modest upward revisions from delayed reports could still occur within the same bin, while larger adjustments are considered low-probability given current observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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