Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the United States, mediated by Qatar and others, combined with extensive damage to enrichment facilities from 2025–2026 strikes, underpin the 97.9% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports confirm limited access to sites and unverifiable stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, while enrichment activities appear halted amid reconstruction challenges at locations like Natanz and Pickaxe Mountain. Public statements from Iranian officials reaffirm NPT commitments despite internal debates over nuclear doctrine. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include rapid escalation resuming hostilities, successful covert weaponization of existing material, or breakdown in talks that prompts a breakout decision within the narrow remaining window.