The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—centered on his congressional testimony regarding the Federal Reserve’s roughly $2.5 billion headquarters renovation—remains the dominant factor keeping market-implied odds of federal charges near zero through year-end. A federal judge quashed related grand jury subpoenas in March after finding essentially no evidence of criminal conduct, prompting referral to the Fed inspector general for internal review instead. With Powell’s term as chair concluded in May and no subsequent investigative activity or new filings reported, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of viable legal pathways. Any shift would require unexpected congressional findings or IG conclusions that reopen scrutiny, though none are scheduled or signaled in recent data releases.