Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for Miami points to an overnight low near 80°F on August 7 amid typical late-summer humidity and scattered convective activity, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 78–81°F bins. Differentiation among the leading 76–81°F ranges stems primarily from uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling: variable cloud cover and timing of showers can suppress temperature drops by trapping longwave radiation, while lighter winds and slightly lower dew points allow marginally greater cooling toward 76–77°F. Persistent urban heat-island effects and sea-breeze influences further moderate extremes, keeping sub-74°F or above-82°F outcomes at low implied probabilities consistent with climatological baselines for the period. Updated forecast discussions and evening model runs will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.