**Forecast models and official guidance from Environment Canada, NOAA-aligned sources, and GFS ensembles point to a minimum temperature on September 3, 2026, most likely in the 17–20 °C range.** This consensus drives the elevated market-implied probabilities clustered around 17–20 °C (each ~24–26 %) and the notable share for 15 °C or below (34 %). Current conditions feature warm, humid air with daytime highs near 26–28 °C and a risk of showers or thunderstorms early in the period. A shift to northwest flow behind any weak frontal passage is expected to allow radiational cooling overnight, producing lows around 17–19 °C under partly cloudy skies. Historical September 3 climatology (average low ~15.9 °C) provides context, but the short-term pattern favors values slightly above the mean. Model agreement is reasonably high for this 48-hour window, though small differences in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. The 25 °C-or-higher outcome (44 %) would require unusually strong mixing or a warmer-than-expected airmass, while colder readings below 15 °C would need clearer skies and lighter winds than currently indicated. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next day remain the key catalysts for any repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Toronto on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 3?
15°C or below 89%
24°C 49%
25°C or higher 44%
19°C 27%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 3, 2026
15°C or below
89%
16°C
9%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
21%
22°C
25%
23°C
25%
24°C
49%
25°C or higher
44%
15°C or below 89%
24°C 49%
25°C or higher 44%
19°C 27%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 3, 2026
15°C or below
$10 KL.
89%
16°C
$229 KL.
9%
17°C
$0 KL.
26%
18°C
$0 KL.
26%
19°C
$0 KL.
27%
20°C
$0 KL.
27%
21°C
$0 KL.
21%
22°C
$0 KL.
25%
23°C
$0 KL.
25%
24°C
$10 KL.
49%
25°C or higher
$10 KL.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from Environment Canada, NOAA-aligned sources, and GFS ensembles point to a minimum temperature on September 3, 2026, most likely in the 17–20 °C range.** This consensus drives the elevated market-implied probabilities clustered around 17–20 °C (each ~24–26 %) and the notable share for 15 °C or below (34 %).
Current conditions feature warm, humid air with daytime highs near 26–28 °C and a risk of showers or thunderstorms early in the period. A shift to northwest flow behind any weak frontal passage is expected to allow radiational cooling overnight, producing lows around 17–19 °C under partly cloudy skies. Historical September 3 climatology (average low ~15.9 °C) provides context, but the short-term pattern favors values slightly above the mean.
Model agreement is reasonably high for this 48-hour window, though small differences in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. The 25 °C-or-higher outcome (44 %) would require unusually strong mixing or a warmer-than-expected airmass, while colder readings below 15 °C would need clearer skies and lighter winds than currently indicated. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next day remain the key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$259Ngày kết thúc
Sep 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from Environment Canada, NOAA-aligned sources, and GFS ensembles point to a minimum temperature on September 3, 2026, most likely in the 17–20 °C range.** This consensus drives the elevated market-implied probabilities clustered around 17–20 °C (each ~24–26 %) and the notable share for 15 °C or below (34 %).
Current conditions feature warm, humid air with daytime highs near 26–28 °C and a risk of showers or thunderstorms early in the period. A shift to northwest flow behind any weak frontal passage is expected to allow radiational cooling overnight, producing lows around 17–19 °C under partly cloudy skies. Historical September 3 climatology (average low ~15.9 °C) provides context, but the short-term pattern favors values slightly above the mean.
Model agreement is reasonably high for this 48-hour window, though small differences in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. The 25 °C-or-higher outcome (44 %) would require unusually strong mixing or a warmer-than-expected airmass, while colder readings below 15 °C would need clearer skies and lighter winds than currently indicated. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next day remain the key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$259Ngày kết thúc
Sep 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from Environment Canada, NOAA-aligned sources, and GFS ensembles point to a minimum temperature on September 3, 2026, most likely in the 17–20 °C range.** This consensus drives the elevated market-implied probabilities clustered around 17–20 °C (each ~24–26 %) and the notable share for 15 °C or below (34 %). Current conditions feature warm, humid air with daytime highs near 26–28 °C and a risk of showers or thunderstorms early in the period. A shift to northwest flow behind any weak frontal passage is expected to allow radiational cooling overnight, producing lows around 17–19 °C under partly cloudy skies. Historical September 3 climatology (average low ~15.9 °C) provides context, but the short-term pattern favors values slightly above the mean. Model agreement is reasonably high for this 48-hour window, though small differences in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. The 25 °C-or-higher outcome (44 %) would require unusually strong mixing or a warmer-than-expected airmass, while colder readings below 15 °C would need clearer skies and lighter winds than currently indicated. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next day remain the key catalysts for any repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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