Montana's solidly Republican political environment and the consolidation of GOP support behind Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him in March 2026 have anchored trader sentiment. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary following endorsements including from President Trump. Recent June and July polls show Alme leading a three-way general election field by double digits, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting the remaining vote. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safely Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the fragmented opposition. The 92 percent Republican implied probability reflects this positioning, though a surge by Bodnar or unified Democratic consolidation could narrow the margin before the November 3 election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMontana Senate Election Winner
Montana Senate Election Winner
Republican 92%
Independent 8.5%
Democrat <1%
$109,616 KL.
$109,616 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
92%
Independent
9%
Democrat
<1%
Republican 92%
Independent 8.5%
Democrat <1%
$109,616 KL.
$109,616 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$55,848 KL.
92%
Independent
$14,047 KL.
9%
Democrat
$39,721 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's solidly Republican political environment and the consolidation of GOP support behind Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him in March 2026 have anchored trader sentiment. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary following endorsements including from President Trump. Recent June and July polls show Alme leading a three-way general election field by double digits, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting the remaining vote. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safely Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the fragmented opposition. The 92 percent Republican implied probability reflects this positioning, though a surge by Bodnar or unified Democratic consolidation could narrow the margin before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$109,616Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's solidly Republican political environment and the consolidation of GOP support behind Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him in March 2026 have anchored trader sentiment. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary following endorsements including from President Trump. Recent June and July polls show Alme leading a three-way general election field by double digits, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting the remaining vote. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safely Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the fragmented opposition. The 92 percent Republican implied probability reflects this positioning, though a surge by Bodnar or unified Democratic consolidation could narrow the margin before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$109,616Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's solidly Republican political environment and the consolidation of GOP support behind Kurt Alme after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him in March 2026 have anchored trader sentiment. Alme secured the Republican nomination with over 76 percent in the June primary following endorsements including from President Trump. Recent June and July polls show Alme leading a three-way general election field by double digits, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting the remaining vote. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safely Republican, consistent with the state's voting patterns and the fragmented opposition. The 92 percent Republican implied probability reflects this positioning, though a surge by Bodnar or unified Democratic consolidation could narrow the margin before the November 3 election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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