Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened the Montana Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican nominee victory at 78% implied probability, reflecting the state's deep-red lean—bolstered by Tim Sheehy's 2024 win and strong GOP midterm turnout expectations. Crowded June 2 primaries feature Republican frontrunner Kurt Alme, backed by Republican Jewish Coalition endorsement and $925,000 fundraising, against lesser-known rivals, while five Democrats like ex-legislator Reilly Neill struggle with under $300,000 combined receipts. Independent Seth Bodnar's $1.4 million war chest and spoiler buzz elevate his odds to 16%, as fragmented Democratic efforts yield just 4% consensus amid no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of the November 3 general.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMontana Senate Election Winner
Montana Senate Election Winner
Republican 77%
Independent 16.4%
Democrat 3.8%
$72,499 KL.
$72,499 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
77%
Independent
16%
Democrat
4%
Republican 77%
Independent 16.4%
Democrat 3.8%
$72,499 KL.
$72,499 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$37,434 KL.
77%
Independent
$1,510 KL.
16%
Democrat
$33,554 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened the Montana Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican nominee victory at 78% implied probability, reflecting the state's deep-red lean—bolstered by Tim Sheehy's 2024 win and strong GOP midterm turnout expectations. Crowded June 2 primaries feature Republican frontrunner Kurt Alme, backed by Republican Jewish Coalition endorsement and $925,000 fundraising, against lesser-known rivals, while five Democrats like ex-legislator Reilly Neill struggle with under $300,000 combined receipts. Independent Seth Bodnar's $1.4 million war chest and spoiler buzz elevate his odds to 16%, as fragmented Democratic efforts yield just 4% consensus amid no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$72,499Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened the Montana Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican nominee victory at 78% implied probability, reflecting the state's deep-red lean—bolstered by Tim Sheehy's 2024 win and strong GOP midterm turnout expectations. Crowded June 2 primaries feature Republican frontrunner Kurt Alme, backed by Republican Jewish Coalition endorsement and $925,000 fundraising, against lesser-known rivals, while five Democrats like ex-legislator Reilly Neill struggle with under $300,000 combined receipts. Independent Seth Bodnar's $1.4 million war chest and spoiler buzz elevate his odds to 16%, as fragmented Democratic efforts yield just 4% consensus amid no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$72,499Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened the Montana Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican nominee victory at 78% implied probability, reflecting the state's deep-red lean—bolstered by Tim Sheehy's 2024 win and strong GOP midterm turnout expectations. Crowded June 2 primaries feature Republican frontrunner Kurt Alme, backed by Republican Jewish Coalition endorsement and $925,000 fundraising, against lesser-known rivals, while five Democrats like ex-legislator Reilly Neill struggle with under $300,000 combined receipts. Independent Seth Bodnar's $1.4 million war chest and spoiler buzz elevate his odds to 16%, as fragmented Democratic efforts yield just 4% consensus amid no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of the November 3 general.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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