Trader sentiment on Anthropic’s next Mythos-class model (following the June 9, 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5) shows closely matched market-implied odds clustered around early-to-mid September dates at roughly 37%, reflecting uncertainty over development timelines and safety guardrails for these high-capability large language models. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI, alongside Anthropic’s focus on cybersecurity benchmarks and controlled access programs like Project Glasswing, continues to shape release pacing. Key swing factors include any official announcements, regulatory shifts on export controls, or internal progress on long-horizon reasoning features, with substantial probability also priced on no release by September 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 1 38%
September 10 38%
September 15 38%
September 18 38%
On or prior to August 25
22%
August 26
22%
August 27
21%
August 28
22%
August 29
8%
August 30
6%
August 31
22%
September 1
38%
September 2
22%
September 3
22%
September 4
22%
September 5
21%
September 6
21%
September 7
22%
September 8
22%
September 9
22%
September 10
38%
September 11
22%
September 12
22%
September 13
21%
September 14
22%
September 15
38%
September 16
22%
September 17
22%
September 18
38%
September 19
38%
September 20
22%
September 21
22%
September 22
22%
September 23
21%
September 24
22%
September 25
22%
September 26
22%
September 27
22%
September 28
21%
September 29
22%
September 30
16%
No release by September 30
22%
September 1 38%
September 10 38%
September 15 38%
September 18 38%
On or prior to August 25
22%
August 26
22%
August 27
21%
August 28
22%
August 29
8%
August 30
6%
August 31
22%
September 1
38%
September 2
22%
September 3
22%
September 4
22%
September 5
21%
September 6
21%
September 7
22%
September 8
22%
September 9
22%
September 10
38%
September 11
22%
September 12
22%
September 13
21%
September 14
22%
September 15
38%
September 16
22%
September 17
22%
September 18
38%
September 19
38%
September 20
22%
September 21
22%
September 22
22%
September 23
21%
September 24
22%
September 25
22%
September 26
22%
September 27
22%
September 28
21%
September 29
22%
September 30
16%
No release by September 30
22%
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Anthropic’s next Mythos-class model (following the June 9, 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5) shows closely matched market-implied odds clustered around early-to-mid September dates at roughly 37%, reflecting uncertainty over development timelines and safety guardrails for these high-capability large language models. Competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI, alongside Anthropic’s focus on cybersecurity benchmarks and controlled access programs like Project Glasswing, continues to shape release pacing. Key swing factors include any official announcements, regulatory shifts on export controls, or internal progress on long-horizon reasoning features, with substantial probability also priced on no release by September 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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