Jon Bonck holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability as the Republican primary frontrunner for Texas's 38th Congressional District following his 47% plurality in the March 3 first-round vote, far ahead of Shelly deZevallos at 19%, triggering a May 26 runoff in this safe GOP Houston-area seat vacated by Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. Trader consensus reflects Bonck's Trump endorsement, Club for Growth backing—including a recent internal poll showing him at 47% to deZevallos's 16% among likely voters—and superior fundraising, consolidating support from scattered first-round rivals like Barrett McNabb. With early voting starting May 18, turnout among Bonck's grassroots base could seal victory, though a deZevallos surge via undecideds (37% in the poll), scandal, or low Republican participation might narrow the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-38 Republican Primary Winner
TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Jon Bonck 94.4%
Barrett McNabb 3.0%
Shelly deZevallos 2.4%
Larry Rubin 1.8%
$38,820 KL.
$38,820 KL.
Jon Bonck
94%
Barrett McNabb
3%
Shelly deZevallos
2%
Larry Rubin
2%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Craig Goralski
1%
Carmen Montiel
1%
Jeff Yuna
<1%
Avery Ayers
<1%
Jon Bonck 94.4%
Barrett McNabb 3.0%
Shelly deZevallos 2.4%
Larry Rubin 1.8%
$38,820 KL.
$38,820 KL.
Jon Bonck
94%
Barrett McNabb
3%
Shelly deZevallos
2%
Larry Rubin
2%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
Craig Goralski
1%
Carmen Montiel
1%
Jeff Yuna
<1%
Avery Ayers
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jon Bonck holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability as the Republican primary frontrunner for Texas's 38th Congressional District following his 47% plurality in the March 3 first-round vote, far ahead of Shelly deZevallos at 19%, triggering a May 26 runoff in this safe GOP Houston-area seat vacated by Wesley Hunt's Senate bid. Trader consensus reflects Bonck's Trump endorsement, Club for Growth backing—including a recent internal poll showing him at 47% to deZevallos's 16% among likely voters—and superior fundraising, consolidating support from scattered first-round rivals like Barrett McNabb. With early voting starting May 18, turnout among Bonck's grassroots base could seal victory, though a deZevallos surge via undecideds (37% in the poll), scandal, or low Republican participation might narrow the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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