Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed, with June 2026 registering $73.3 billion after May's $77.6 billion, driven by sharper import declines in capital and consumer goods amid ongoing tariff adjustments. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, down sharply from the prior year, while the trailing twelve months through June reached $743 billion, reflecting normalization following 2025 front-loading ahead of broad duties. Policy shifts—including the Supreme Court's February invalidation of IEEPA tariffs and subsequent Section 301 measures imposing 10–12.5% rates on dozens of partners—have introduced volatility and refunds that temper import demand, though resilient GDP growth, AI-related capital inflows, and a strong dollar continue to support imports. With the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion bands commanding 42% and 32.5% implied probabilities respectively, traders are weighing these competing forces ahead of July data and further trade policy clarity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$24,009 KL.
$24,009 KL.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
33%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
13%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
6%
$24,009 KL.
$24,009 KL.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,848 KL.
3%
500–600B
$454 KL.
5%
600–700B
$543 KL.
9%
700–800B
$670 KL.
33%
800–900B
$1,519 KL.
42%
900B–1T
$1,397 KL.
13%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 KL.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed, with June 2026 registering $73.3 billion after May's $77.6 billion, driven by sharper import declines in capital and consumer goods amid ongoing tariff adjustments. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, down sharply from the prior year, while the trailing twelve months through June reached $743 billion, reflecting normalization following 2025 front-loading ahead of broad duties. Policy shifts—including the Supreme Court's February invalidation of IEEPA tariffs and subsequent Section 301 measures imposing 10–12.5% rates on dozens of partners—have introduced volatility and refunds that temper import demand, though resilient GDP growth, AI-related capital inflows, and a strong dollar continue to support imports. With the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion bands commanding 42% and 32.5% implied probabilities respectively, traders are weighing these competing forces ahead of July data and further trade policy clarity.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,009Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed, with June 2026 registering $73.3 billion after May's $77.6 billion, driven by sharper import declines in capital and consumer goods amid ongoing tariff adjustments. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, down sharply from the prior year, while the trailing twelve months through June reached $743 billion, reflecting normalization following 2025 front-loading ahead of broad duties. Policy shifts—including the Supreme Court's February invalidation of IEEPA tariffs and subsequent Section 301 measures imposing 10–12.5% rates on dozens of partners—have introduced volatility and refunds that temper import demand, though resilient GDP growth, AI-related capital inflows, and a strong dollar continue to support imports. With the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion bands commanding 42% and 32.5% implied probabilities respectively, traders are weighing these competing forces ahead of July data and further trade policy clarity.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$24,009Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed, with June 2026 registering $73.3 billion after May's $77.6 billion, driven by sharper import declines in capital and consumer goods amid ongoing tariff adjustments. Cumulative first-half 2026 data show a $371 billion gap, down sharply from the prior year, while the trailing twelve months through June reached $743 billion, reflecting normalization following 2025 front-loading ahead of broad duties. Policy shifts—including the Supreme Court's February invalidation of IEEPA tariffs and subsequent Section 301 measures imposing 10–12.5% rates on dozens of partners—have introduced volatility and refunds that temper import demand, though resilient GDP growth, AI-related capital inflows, and a strong dollar continue to support imports. With the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion bands commanding 42% and 32.5% implied probabilities respectively, traders are weighing these competing forces ahead of July data and further trade policy clarity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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