Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$20,985 KL.
$20,985 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
8%
800–900B
44%
900B–1T
36%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$20,985 KL.
$20,985 KL.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,637 KL.
7%
500–600B
$413 KL.
6%
600–700B
$435 KL.
5%
700–800B
$456 KL.
8%
800–900B
$1,008 KL.
44%
900B–1T
$971 KL.
36%
1T–1.1T
$441 KL.
9%
1.1T+
$624 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,985Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$20,985Ngày kết thúc
Feb 28, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tariff hikes implemented since early 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, narrowing the goods trade gap while service exports hold steady amid moderating global demand. CBO projections show the overall deficit declining as a share of GDP through 2026, with imports growing slower than exports due to domestic production gains and dollar depreciation. Trader consensus places the 2026 outcome in the 800–900 billion or 900 billion–1 trillion range because these policy effects remain partially offset by fiscal stimulus boosting import demand and lingering uncertainty over further trade measures. Key variables that could widen separation include the pace of tariff adjustments, foreign retaliation, or shifts in U.S. manufacturing investment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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