**Below-normal Atlantic activity and a currently quiet basin strongly support the 87.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season (including the two early tropical storms already recorded), reflecting a 75% chance of below-normal conditions driven by moderate El Niño-related wind shear and other suppressing factors. As of August 12, the National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with minimal development expected in the near term despite the climatological peak. Colorado State University’s latest outlook similarly projects well-below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for the season, consistent with the historically low activity observed so far. While August can produce rapid intensification and steering patterns favoring landfall, the combination of suppressed overall genesis, strong vertical wind shear, and the short remaining window makes a hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) reaching the continental U.S. or key coastal areas unlikely. Traders appear to be weighting the official agency consensus and current basin state heavily, with any late-month surprise dependent on unexpected model shifts or rapid development not currently indicated.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
13% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
13% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.**Below-normal Atlantic activity and a currently quiet basin strongly support the 87.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season (including the two early tropical storms already recorded), reflecting a 75% chance of below-normal conditions driven by moderate El Niño-related wind shear and other suppressing factors. As of August 12, the National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with minimal development expected in the near term despite the climatological peak.
Colorado State University’s latest outlook similarly projects well-below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for the season, consistent with the historically low activity observed so far. While August can produce rapid intensification and steering patterns favoring landfall, the combination of suppressed overall genesis, strong vertical wind shear, and the short remaining window makes a hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) reaching the continental U.S. or key coastal areas unlikely. Traders appear to be weighting the official agency consensus and current basin state heavily, with any late-month surprise dependent on unexpected model shifts or rapid development not currently indicated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Thị trường mở: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$984Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.**Below-normal Atlantic activity and a currently quiet basin strongly support the 87.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season (including the two early tropical storms already recorded), reflecting a 75% chance of below-normal conditions driven by moderate El Niño-related wind shear and other suppressing factors. As of August 12, the National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with minimal development expected in the near term despite the climatological peak.
Colorado State University’s latest outlook similarly projects well-below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for the season, consistent with the historically low activity observed so far. While August can produce rapid intensification and steering patterns favoring landfall, the combination of suppressed overall genesis, strong vertical wind shear, and the short remaining window makes a hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) reaching the continental U.S. or key coastal areas unlikely. Traders appear to be weighting the official agency consensus and current basin state heavily, with any late-month surprise dependent on unexpected model shifts or rapid development not currently indicated.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Khối lượng
$984Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Below-normal Atlantic activity and a currently quiet basin strongly support the 87.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. hurricane landfall in August 2026.** NOAA’s August 6 update forecasts only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full season (including the two early tropical storms already recorded), reflecting a 75% chance of below-normal conditions driven by moderate El Niño-related wind shear and other suppressing factors. As of August 12, the National Hurricane Center reports no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with minimal development expected in the near term despite the climatological peak. Colorado State University’s latest outlook similarly projects well-below-average U.S. landfall probabilities for the season, consistent with the historically low activity observed so far. While August can produce rapid intensification and steering patterns favoring landfall, the combination of suppressed overall genesis, strong vertical wind shear, and the short remaining window makes a hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) reaching the continental U.S. or key coastal areas unlikely. Traders appear to be weighting the official agency consensus and current basin state heavily, with any late-month surprise dependent on unexpected model shifts or rapid development not currently indicated.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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