An Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on May 13 quashed a citizen petition by Stay Free Alberta, which had gathered over 300,000 signatures to trigger an independence referendum question on the province's scheduled October 19 ballot, citing failure to consult First Nations on treaty rights—a major legal setback reinforced by prior injunctions. Premier Danielle Smith announced an appeal but has not endorsed separation, focusing instead on her government's nine policy questions for the vote amid low public support, with recent Angus Reid and Abacus Data polls showing only 25-29% favoring independence and a majority preferring to remain in Canada. Federal constitutional barriers and historical base rates of failed secession efforts further solidify trader consensus at 89% against Alberta voting for independence in 2026.