Traders assign a 97% probability against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by June 30, 2026, because Russian statements continue to condition any direct summit on the prior conclusion of a comprehensive peace framework, with no such agreement in place and only weeks remaining. Ongoing trilateral envoy discussions, including recent Geneva rounds, have advanced procedural exchanges on issues such as prisoner swaps and territorial arrangements but have not produced the pre-negotiated terms required for a leadership-level encounter. Zelenskyy has signaled openness to formats that could enable such a meeting, yet Russian positions emphasize that any summit would serve solely as a formality to endorse finalized accords rather than initiate negotiations. This stance aligns with historical patterns of stalled bilateral talks since 2022, reinforcing market expectations of insufficient time for the necessary diplomatic sequencing. Even so, an abrupt breakthrough in parallel U.S.-mediated channels or a sudden shift in Russian preconditions could still compress timelines and alter the outcome before the resolution date.