Recent monthly Treasury data show the fiscal year 2026 deficit already reaching $1.8 trillion through July, exceeding the full prior-year total and tracking toward $2 trillion or more by September 30, driven by entitlement spending, rising net interest costs, and outlays outpacing revenue growth. CBO projections place the 2026 shortfall at $1.9–2.1 trillion (5.8 percent of GDP), above the prior year, following the 2025 reconciliation measure that added trillions in net deficits through tax extensions and added defense and border funding despite some tariff offsets. Congressional action largely rejected the administration’s proposed non-defense discretionary cuts, while structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service continue to widen the gap. These developments underpin trader consensus that deficit reduction before 2027 remains unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật11% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
11% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent monthly Treasury data show the fiscal year 2026 deficit already reaching $1.8 trillion through July, exceeding the full prior-year total and tracking toward $2 trillion or more by September 30, driven by entitlement spending, rising net interest costs, and outlays outpacing revenue growth. CBO projections place the 2026 shortfall at $1.9–2.1 trillion (5.8 percent of GDP), above the prior year, following the 2025 reconciliation measure that added trillions in net deficits through tax extensions and added defense and border funding despite some tariff offsets. Congressional action largely rejected the administration’s proposed non-defense discretionary cuts, while structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service continue to widen the gap. These developments underpin trader consensus that deficit reduction before 2027 remains unlikely.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,497Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent monthly Treasury data show the fiscal year 2026 deficit already reaching $1.8 trillion through July, exceeding the full prior-year total and tracking toward $2 trillion or more by September 30, driven by entitlement spending, rising net interest costs, and outlays outpacing revenue growth. CBO projections place the 2026 shortfall at $1.9–2.1 trillion (5.8 percent of GDP), above the prior year, following the 2025 reconciliation measure that added trillions in net deficits through tax extensions and added defense and border funding despite some tariff offsets. Congressional action largely rejected the administration’s proposed non-defense discretionary cuts, while structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service continue to widen the gap. These developments underpin trader consensus that deficit reduction before 2027 remains unlikely.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Khối lượng
$2,497Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent monthly Treasury data show the fiscal year 2026 deficit already reaching $1.8 trillion through July, exceeding the full prior-year total and tracking toward $2 trillion or more by September 30, driven by entitlement spending, rising net interest costs, and outlays outpacing revenue growth. CBO projections place the 2026 shortfall at $1.9–2.1 trillion (5.8 percent of GDP), above the prior year, following the 2025 reconciliation measure that added trillions in net deficits through tax extensions and added defense and border funding despite some tariff offsets. Congressional action largely rejected the administration’s proposed non-defense discretionary cuts, while structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service continue to widen the gap. These developments underpin trader consensus that deficit reduction before 2027 remains unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp