Trump's second-term trajectory shows no credible signs of early departure, with traders assigning just 3.5% implied probability to resignation before 2027. Strong Republican congressional majorities, consistent public statements affirming full-term service, and the absence of acute health disclosures or legal developments capable of forcing exit underpin the near-certain market pricing. Historical base rates for voluntary presidential resignation remain extremely low absent extraordinary pressure. Late-term shifts could still arise from verifiable medical events, sudden coalition fractures within the party, or unforeseen scandals prompting institutional or personal reassessment, though none currently register as probable within the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4% khả năng
$23,403 KL.
$23,403 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$23,403 KL.
$23,403 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's second-term trajectory shows no credible signs of early departure, with traders assigning just 3.5% implied probability to resignation before 2027. Strong Republican congressional majorities, consistent public statements affirming full-term service, and the absence of acute health disclosures or legal developments capable of forcing exit underpin the near-certain market pricing. Historical base rates for voluntary presidential resignation remain extremely low absent extraordinary pressure. Late-term shifts could still arise from verifiable medical events, sudden coalition fractures within the party, or unforeseen scandals prompting institutional or personal reassessment, though none currently register as probable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$23,403Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's second-term trajectory shows no credible signs of early departure, with traders assigning just 3.5% implied probability to resignation before 2027. Strong Republican congressional majorities, consistent public statements affirming full-term service, and the absence of acute health disclosures or legal developments capable of forcing exit underpin the near-certain market pricing. Historical base rates for voluntary presidential resignation remain extremely low absent extraordinary pressure. Late-term shifts could still arise from verifiable medical events, sudden coalition fractures within the party, or unforeseen scandals prompting institutional or personal reassessment, though none currently register as probable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$23,403Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's second-term trajectory shows no credible signs of early departure, with traders assigning just 3.5% implied probability to resignation before 2027. Strong Republican congressional majorities, consistent public statements affirming full-term service, and the absence of acute health disclosures or legal developments capable of forcing exit underpin the near-certain market pricing. Historical base rates for voluntary presidential resignation remain extremely low absent extraordinary pressure. Late-term shifts could still arise from verifiable medical events, sudden coalition fractures within the party, or unforeseen scandals prompting institutional or personal reassessment, though none currently register as probable within the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp