**Traders assign an 87% probability to no G20 leader departing office before the end of 2026, reflecting limited scheduled electoral or constitutional transitions and the absence of acute crises capable of forcing immediate exits in the final months of the year.** Most G20 heads of state or government, including those of the United States, China, India, and Japan, face no term-ending votes or confirmed resignation pressures before January 2027. Brazil’s presidential runoff on October 25 and routine ministerial changes elsewhere have not produced leadership vacancies among core G20 members. The December G20 summit in Miami is expected to proceed under established U.S. hosting arrangements without triggering domestic political realignments. With roughly ten weeks remaining and no major diplomatic ruptures or health-related announcements altering trajectories, the market consensus aligns with historical patterns in which G20 leadership turnover clusters around election cycles rather than occurring in year-end lulls.