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政治·主要

AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者

icon for AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者
政治·主要

AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者

馬克·蘭姆 95.2%

Travis Grantham 3.4%

Jay Feely <1%

Polymarket

$47,624 交易量

馬克·蘭姆 95.2%

Travis Grantham 3.4%

Jay Feely <1%

Polymarket

$47,624 交易量

馬克·蘭姆

$4,405 交易量

95%

Travis Grantham

$1,365 交易量

3%

Jay Feely

$41,854 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 5th Congressional District Republican primary due to his early Trump endorsement, prior statewide name recognition from a 2024 U.S. Senate bid, and consistent polling strength among likely primary voters. As the former Pinal County sheriff, Lamb benefits from law enforcement endorsements and broad appeal across conservative factions in the open seat race to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs. The July 21 primary remains several weeks away, leaving room for late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, unexpected fundraising surge by challengers like Travis Grantham or Jay Feely, or unforeseen controversies to alter the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$47,624
結束日期
2026-08-04
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 5th Congressional District Republican primary due to his early Trump endorsement, prior statewide name recognition from a 2024 U.S. Senate bid, and consistent polling strength among likely primary voters. As the former Pinal County sheriff, Lamb benefits from law enforcement endorsements and broad appeal across conservative factions in the open seat race to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs. The July 21 primary remains several weeks away, leaving room for late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, unexpected fundraising surge by challengers like Travis Grantham or Jay Feely, or unforeseen controversies to alter the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$47,624
結束日期
2026-08-04
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "馬克·蘭姆" at 95%, followed by "Travis Grantham" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $47.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者" is "馬克·蘭姆" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Travis Grantham" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-05共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.