Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because consistent recent polls position him as the clearest challenger behind incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified the Liberal Party and broader right-wing base around his son, enabling Flávio to consolidate conservative support that previously split among multiple governors. Latest surveys from Quaest and Ideia show Lula at roughly 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos each stuck below 6 percent and unlikely to overtake the senator before voting day. Lula’s approval ratings near 45 percent and economic headwinds have prevented a wider first-round lead, while the absence of viable alternative right-wing candidacies keeps Flávio’s path to second place open. Upcoming candidate withdrawals or major endorsements could still alter the ordering, yet current polling averages and campaign consolidation continue to underpin the market’s strong preference.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於弗拉維奧·波索納羅 62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 7.7%
羅梅烏·澤馬 6.9%
$3,523,676 交易量
$3,523,676 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
15%
雷南·桑托斯
8%
羅梅烏·澤馬
7%
米歇爾·波索納羅
3%
費爾南多·哈達
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
2%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
1%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
<1%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 7.7%
羅梅烏·澤馬 6.9%
$3,523,676 交易量
$3,523,676 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
$56,396 交易量
62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
$67,344 交易量
15%
雷南·桑托斯
$995,940 交易量
8%
羅梅烏·澤馬
$256,381 交易量
7%
米歇爾·波索納羅
$72,830 交易量
3%
費爾南多·哈達
$651,329 交易量
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
$56,064 交易量
2%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
$2,853 交易量
1%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
$289,157 交易量
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$123,364 交易量
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
$111,040 交易量
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
$642,631 交易量
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
$29,825 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
$48,401 交易量
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
$2,260 交易量
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
$77,363 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
$40,500 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because consistent recent polls position him as the clearest challenger behind incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified the Liberal Party and broader right-wing base around his son, enabling Flávio to consolidate conservative support that previously split among multiple governors. Latest surveys from Quaest and Ideia show Lula at roughly 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos each stuck below 6 percent and unlikely to overtake the senator before voting day. Lula’s approval ratings near 45 percent and economic headwinds have prevented a wider first-round lead, while the absence of viable alternative right-wing candidacies keeps Flávio’s path to second place open. Upcoming candidate withdrawals or major endorsements could still alter the ordering, yet current polling averages and campaign consolidation continue to underpin the market’s strong preference.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$3,523,676結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because consistent recent polls position him as the clearest challenger behind incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified the Liberal Party and broader right-wing base around his son, enabling Flávio to consolidate conservative support that previously split among multiple governors. Latest surveys from Quaest and Ideia show Lula at roughly 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos each stuck below 6 percent and unlikely to overtake the senator before voting day. Lula’s approval ratings near 45 percent and economic headwinds have prevented a wider first-round lead, while the absence of viable alternative right-wing candidacies keeps Flávio’s path to second place open. Upcoming candidate withdrawals or major endorsements could still alter the ordering, yet current polling averages and campaign consolidation continue to underpin the market’s strong preference.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$3,523,676結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because consistent recent polls position him as the clearest challenger behind incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified the Liberal Party and broader right-wing base around his son, enabling Flávio to consolidate conservative support that previously split among multiple governors. Latest surveys from Quaest and Ideia show Lula at roughly 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos each stuck below 6 percent and unlikely to overtake the senator before voting day. Lula’s approval ratings near 45 percent and economic headwinds have prevented a wider first-round lead, while the absence of viable alternative right-wing candidacies keeps Flávio’s path to second place open. Upcoming candidate withdrawals or major endorsements could still alter the ordering, yet current polling averages and campaign consolidation continue to underpin the market’s strong preference.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions