PL leads trader consensus for the most seats in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state plurality voting, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning regional base, aggressive recruitment of candidates, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid. Recent polling consolidation around the Bolsonaro-aligned ticket, combined with PL’s existing 16-seat bloc and targets of 25–30 new wins, has sustained high implied probability. MDB trails as the main alternative due to its centrist positioning and current nine seats, while smaller parties like UNIÃO, PSD, and PT show limited momentum amid right-wing realignment. Key upcoming catalysts include final candidate slates and presidential polling trends through September.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PL 79%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 16.7%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 1.0%
工人黨（PT） <1%
$293,650 交易量
$293,650 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
79%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
17%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
1%
工人黨（PT）
1%
社會民主黨（PSD）
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
<1%
進步黨（PP）
<1%
PSDB
<1%
新黨（NOVO）
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
<1%
PODEMOS
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 79%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 16.7%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 1.0%
工人黨（PT） <1%
$293,650 交易量
$293,650 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$258,922 交易量
79%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$8,294 交易量
17%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
$2,883 交易量
1%
工人黨（PT）
$2,953 交易量
1%
社會民主黨（PSD）
$2,658 交易量
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
$3,355 交易量
<1%
進步黨（PP）
$2,465 交易量
<1%
PSDB
$2,442 交易量
<1%
新黨（NOVO）
$2,708 交易量
<1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$2,304 交易量
<1%
PODEMOS
$2,615 交易量
<1%
PDT
$2,052 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads trader consensus for the most seats in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state plurality voting, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning regional base, aggressive recruitment of candidates, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid. Recent polling consolidation around the Bolsonaro-aligned ticket, combined with PL’s existing 16-seat bloc and targets of 25–30 new wins, has sustained high implied probability. MDB trails as the main alternative due to its centrist positioning and current nine seats, while smaller parties like UNIÃO, PSD, and PT show limited momentum amid right-wing realignment. Key upcoming catalysts include final candidate slates and presidential polling trends through September.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$293,650結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads trader consensus for the most seats in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state plurality voting, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning regional base, aggressive recruitment of candidates, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid. Recent polling consolidation around the Bolsonaro-aligned ticket, combined with PL’s existing 16-seat bloc and targets of 25–30 new wins, has sustained high implied probability. MDB trails as the main alternative due to its centrist positioning and current nine seats, while smaller parties like UNIÃO, PSD, and PT show limited momentum amid right-wing realignment. Key upcoming catalysts include final candidate slates and presidential polling trends through September.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$293,650結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL leads trader consensus for the most seats in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, which renews 54 of 81 seats via two-per-state plurality voting, reflecting the Liberal Party’s entrenched right-leaning regional base, aggressive recruitment of candidates, and expected coattails from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential bid. Recent polling consolidation around the Bolsonaro-aligned ticket, combined with PL’s existing 16-seat bloc and targets of 25–30 new wins, has sustained high implied probability. MDB trails as the main alternative due to its centrist positioning and current nine seats, while smaller parties like UNIÃO, PSD, and PT show limited momentum amid right-wing realignment. Key upcoming catalysts include final candidate slates and presidential polling trends through September.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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