Trader consensus assigns the PL party an 78% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning stems from PL’s sustained gains in recent state-level surveys across key battlegrounds including the Distrito Federal, Rio de Janeiro, and Santa Catarina, bolstered by high-profile candidacies tied to the Bolsonaro family. The party’s expansion during the 2025–2026 affiliation window, which added dozens of federal deputies, has strengthened its organizational reach. Institutional pushback, including the Senate’s late-April rejection of President Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, further underscores opposition momentum that traders interpret as favoring PL’s geographic and candidate advantages over smaller right-leaning parties and the PT-led left.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PL 81%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS） 8.1%
社會民主黨（PSD） 5.5%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 4.3%
$253,923 交易量
$253,923 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
81%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
8%
社會民主黨（PSD）
6%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
4%
工人黨（PT）
3%
PODEMOS
2%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
2%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
1%
新黨（NOVO）
1%
PSDB
<1%
進步黨（PP）
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 81%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS） 8.1%
社會民主黨（PSD） 5.5%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 4.3%
$253,923 交易量
$253,923 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$242,655 交易量
81%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
$1,075 交易量
8%
社會民主黨（PSD）
$1,046 交易量
6%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
$958 交易量
4%
工人黨（PT）
$1,040 交易量
3%
PODEMOS
$1,156 交易量
2%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$986 交易量
2%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$1,071 交易量
1%
新黨（NOVO）
$1,134 交易量
1%
PSDB
$1,023 交易量
<1%
進步黨（PP）
$935 交易量
<1%
PDT
$843 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus assigns the PL party an 78% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning stems from PL’s sustained gains in recent state-level surveys across key battlegrounds including the Distrito Federal, Rio de Janeiro, and Santa Catarina, bolstered by high-profile candidacies tied to the Bolsonaro family. The party’s expansion during the 2025–2026 affiliation window, which added dozens of federal deputies, has strengthened its organizational reach. Institutional pushback, including the Senate’s late-April rejection of President Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, further underscores opposition momentum that traders interpret as favoring PL’s geographic and candidate advantages over smaller right-leaning parties and the PT-led left.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$253,923結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus assigns the PL party an 78% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning stems from PL’s sustained gains in recent state-level surveys across key battlegrounds including the Distrito Federal, Rio de Janeiro, and Santa Catarina, bolstered by high-profile candidacies tied to the Bolsonaro family. The party’s expansion during the 2025–2026 affiliation window, which added dozens of federal deputies, has strengthened its organizational reach. Institutional pushback, including the Senate’s late-April rejection of President Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, further underscores opposition momentum that traders interpret as favoring PL’s geographic and candidate advantages over smaller right-leaning parties and the PT-led left.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$253,923結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the PL party an 78% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, where 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning stems from PL’s sustained gains in recent state-level surveys across key battlegrounds including the Distrito Federal, Rio de Janeiro, and Santa Catarina, bolstered by high-profile candidacies tied to the Bolsonaro family. The party’s expansion during the 2025–2026 affiliation window, which added dozens of federal deputies, has strengthened its organizational reach. Institutional pushback, including the Senate’s late-April rejection of President Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, further underscores opposition momentum that traders interpret as favoring PL’s geographic and candidate advantages over smaller right-leaning parties and the PT-led left.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions