Recent polls project President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the October 4 first round with roughly 39 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low to mid-30s, positioning the Liberal Party nominee as the clear frontrunner for second place. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement consolidated right-wing backing behind his son, and subsequent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Ideia show Flávio maintaining a narrow edge or statistical tie against Lula in runoff simulations. Other declared candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register single-digit first-round shares that traders view as insufficient to overtake Flávio absent major withdrawals or shifts in opposition unity. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval ratings and lingering questions over Flávio’s legal matters have kept the market’s implied probability for a Bolsonaro second-place finish above 60 percent.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於弗拉維奧·波索納羅 62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 7.3%
羅梅烏·澤馬 6.7%
$3,523,451 交易量
$3,523,451 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
15%
雷南·桑托斯
7%
羅梅烏·澤馬
7%
米歇爾·波索納羅
3%
費爾南多·哈達
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
2%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
1%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
<1%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 7.3%
羅梅烏·澤馬 6.7%
$3,523,451 交易量
$3,523,451 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·波索納羅
$56,396 交易量
62%
路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦
$67,153 交易量
15%
雷南·桑托斯
$995,930 交易量
7%
羅梅烏·澤馬
$256,381 交易量
7%
米歇爾·波索納羅
$72,825 交易量
3%
費爾南多·哈達
$651,329 交易量
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
$56,064 交易量
2%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
$2,848 交易量
1%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
$289,157 交易量
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$123,364 交易量
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
$111,040 交易量
<1%
哈蒂諾·朱尼奧爾
$642,631 交易量
<1%
奧爾多·雷貝洛
$29,825 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·波索納羅
$48,401 交易量
<1%
赫爾德·巴爾巴洛
$2,246 交易量
<1%
雅伊爾·博爾索納羅
$77,363 交易量
<1%
愛德華多·萊特
$40,500 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls project President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the October 4 first round with roughly 39 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low to mid-30s, positioning the Liberal Party nominee as the clear frontrunner for second place. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement consolidated right-wing backing behind his son, and subsequent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Ideia show Flávio maintaining a narrow edge or statistical tie against Lula in runoff simulations. Other declared candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register single-digit first-round shares that traders view as insufficient to overtake Flávio absent major withdrawals or shifts in opposition unity. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval ratings and lingering questions over Flávio’s legal matters have kept the market’s implied probability for a Bolsonaro second-place finish above 60 percent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$3,523,451結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls project President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the October 4 first round with roughly 39 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low to mid-30s, positioning the Liberal Party nominee as the clear frontrunner for second place. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement consolidated right-wing backing behind his son, and subsequent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Ideia show Flávio maintaining a narrow edge or statistical tie against Lula in runoff simulations. Other declared candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register single-digit first-round shares that traders view as insufficient to overtake Flávio absent major withdrawals or shifts in opposition unity. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval ratings and lingering questions over Flávio’s legal matters have kept the market’s implied probability for a Bolsonaro second-place finish above 60 percent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$3,523,451結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls project President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the October 4 first round with roughly 39 percent support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low to mid-30s, positioning the Liberal Party nominee as the clear frontrunner for second place. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement consolidated right-wing backing behind his son, and subsequent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Ideia show Flávio maintaining a narrow edge or statistical tie against Lula in runoff simulations. Other declared candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register single-digit first-round shares that traders view as insufficient to overtake Flávio absent major withdrawals or shifts in opposition unity. Economic pressures on Lula’s approval ratings and lingering questions over Flávio’s legal matters have kept the market’s implied probability for a Bolsonaro second-place finish above 60 percent.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions