In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於羅梅烏·澤馬 31%
雷南·桑托斯 30%
Ronaldo Caiado 21%
米歇爾·波索納羅 5.3%
$282,535 交易量
$282,535 交易量
2026-10-04
羅梅烏·澤馬
31%
雷南·桑托斯
30%
Ronaldo Caiado
21%
米歇爾·波索納羅
5%
費爾南多·哈達德
4%
弗拉维奥·博索納羅
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
1%
賈伊爾·博索納羅
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
1%
愛杜亞多·萊特
1%
愛德華多·博索納羅
<1%
阿爾多·雷貝洛
<1%
哈蒂紐·儒尼奧爾
<1%
埃爾德·巴爾巴略
<1%
羅梅烏·澤馬 31%
雷南·桑托斯 30%
Ronaldo Caiado 21%
米歇爾·波索納羅 5.3%
$282,535 交易量
$282,535 交易量
2026-10-04
羅梅烏·澤馬
$10,773 交易量
31%
雷南·桑托斯
$63,768 交易量
30%
Ronaldo Caiado
$16,758 交易量
21%
米歇爾·波索納羅
$4,817 交易量
5%
費爾南多·哈達德
$14,354 交易量
4%
弗拉维奥·博索納羅
$7,036 交易量
3%
卡米洛·桑塔納
$6,116 交易量
1%
賈伊爾·博索納羅
$4,092 交易量
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$5,286 交易量
1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$654 交易量
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$4,260 交易量
1%
塔西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
$4,328 交易量
1%
愛杜亞多·萊特
$2,559 交易量
1%
愛德華多·博索納羅
$39,622 交易量
<1%
阿爾多·雷貝洛
$4,536 交易量
<1%
哈蒂紐·儒尼奧爾
$93,224 交易量
<1%
埃爾德·巴爾巴略
$354 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
交易量
$282,535結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$282,535結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Brazil's 2026 presidential race, traders see a narrow contest for third place in the first round, with Romeu Zema and Renan Santos holding nearly identical implied probabilities driven by overlapping regional bases and undecided voter blocs in key states. Ronaldo Caiado sits further back, while lower-probability figures such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad reflect limited momentum from party coalitions and recent positioning. The tight spread stems from fluid alliances, ongoing primary maneuvering, and the absence of decisive polling separation, leaving room for upcoming coalition announcements or candidate withdrawals to shift probabilities before October voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions