Iván Cepeda Castro maintains a polling lead of roughly 34–39 percent ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the fragmented opposition between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia keeps the race for second place tight and prevents any candidate from approaching an outright majority. Recent polls and final-week campaigning have reinforced this split, with undecided voters and regional turnout patterns likely determining whether Cepeda’s margin lands in the 5–15 percent range that currently dominates trader pricing. Isolated incidents of campaign-related violence and reports of armed-group pressure in select departments have added short-term uncertainty without shifting national aggregates. A surge in late deciders or stronger regional mobilization by either right-leaning contender could widen or narrow Cepeda’s first-round edge before ballots close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 14%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 交易量
$14,918 交易量
2026-05-31
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
7%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
10%
de la Espriella Win
14%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 14%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 10.1%
$14,918 交易量
$14,918 交易量
2026-05-31
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,798 交易量
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 交易量
7%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,102 交易量
39%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,116 交易量
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,252 交易量
10%
de la Espriella Win
$4,100 交易量
14%
Valencia Win
$2,270 交易量
1%
Other
$2,066 交易量
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda Castro maintains a polling lead of roughly 34–39 percent ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the fragmented opposition between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia keeps the race for second place tight and prevents any candidate from approaching an outright majority. Recent polls and final-week campaigning have reinforced this split, with undecided voters and regional turnout patterns likely determining whether Cepeda’s margin lands in the 5–15 percent range that currently dominates trader pricing. Isolated incidents of campaign-related violence and reports of armed-group pressure in select departments have added short-term uncertainty without shifting national aggregates. A surge in late deciders or stronger regional mobilization by either right-leaning contender could widen or narrow Cepeda’s first-round edge before ballots close.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$14,918結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Iván Cepeda Castro maintains a polling lead of roughly 34–39 percent ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the fragmented opposition between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia keeps the race for second place tight and prevents any candidate from approaching an outright majority. Recent polls and final-week campaigning have reinforced this split, with undecided voters and regional turnout patterns likely determining whether Cepeda’s margin lands in the 5–15 percent range that currently dominates trader pricing. Isolated incidents of campaign-related violence and reports of armed-group pressure in select departments have added short-term uncertainty without shifting national aggregates. A surge in late deciders or stronger regional mobilization by either right-leaning contender could widen or narrow Cepeda’s first-round edge before ballots close.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$14,918結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iván Cepeda Castro maintains a polling lead of roughly 34–39 percent ahead of Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote, yet the fragmented opposition between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia keeps the race for second place tight and prevents any candidate from approaching an outright majority. Recent polls and final-week campaigning have reinforced this split, with undecided voters and regional turnout patterns likely determining whether Cepeda’s margin lands in the 5–15 percent range that currently dominates trader pricing. Isolated incidents of campaign-related violence and reports of armed-group pressure in select departments have added short-term uncertainty without shifting national aggregates. A surge in late deciders or stronger regional mobilization by either right-leaning contender could widen or narrow Cepeda’s first-round edge before ballots close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions