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icon for 都柏林市中心補選優勝者
選舉·世界選舉

都柏林市中心補選優勝者

icon for 都柏林市中心補選優勝者
選舉·世界選舉

都柏林市中心補選優勝者

丹尼爾·恩尼斯 74%

Janice Boylan 22.0%

Gerry Hutch 5.0%

Ray McAdam 1.3%

Polymarket

$1,097,113 交易量

丹尼爾·恩尼斯 74%

Janice Boylan 22.0%

Gerry Hutch 5.0%

Ray McAdam 1.3%

Polymarket

$1,097,113 交易量

丹尼爾·恩尼斯

$34,718 交易量

74%

Janice Boylan

$18,379 交易量

22%

Gerry Hutch

$509,221 交易量

5%

Ray McAdam

$34,924 交易量

1%

馬拉基·斯廷森

$22,615 交易量

1%

Gillian Sherratt

$183,181 交易量

1%

珍妮特·霍納

$16,707 交易量

<1%

伊恩·諾埃爾·斯賓思

$13,942 交易量

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$53,548 交易量

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$9,902 交易量

<1%

瑪麗·菲茨派翠克

$45,699 交易量

<1%

約翰·史蒂芬斯

$154,276 交易量

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats holds the strongest trader consensus in the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his positioning to receive transfers under Ireland’s PR-STV system from left-leaning voters supporting Labour, People Before Profit, and the Greens. A recent Ipsos B&A poll for The Irish Times and TG4 showed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent to Ennis’s 18 percent, yet Ennis recorded the highest second-preference backing, reflecting local canvassing momentum and community ties in the four-seat constituency vacated by Paschal Donohoe. Independent Gerry Hutch trails in third place on first preferences amid limited transfer appeal due to his criminal background, while Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam and other minor candidates remain marginal. With polling on 22 May, outcomes hinge on final-week turnout and transfer flows.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$1,097,113
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats holds the strongest trader consensus in the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his positioning to receive transfers under Ireland’s PR-STV system from left-leaning voters supporting Labour, People Before Profit, and the Greens. A recent Ipsos B&A poll for The Irish Times and TG4 showed Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent to Ennis’s 18 percent, yet Ennis recorded the highest second-preference backing, reflecting local canvassing momentum and community ties in the four-seat constituency vacated by Paschal Donohoe. Independent Gerry Hutch trails in third place on first preferences amid limited transfer appeal due to his criminal background, while Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam and other minor candidates remain marginal. With polling on 22 May, outcomes hinge on final-week turnout and transfer flows.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$1,097,113
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"都柏林市中心補選優勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "丹尼爾·恩尼斯" at 74%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "都柏林市中心補選優勝者" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "都柏林市中心補選優勝者," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "都柏林市中心補選優勝者" is "丹尼爾·恩尼斯" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "都柏林市中心補選優勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.