Traders see Elon Musk’s established posting cadence as the dominant factor behind the market’s heavy weighting toward 40-64 tweets (49.5% implied probability) and 65-89 tweets (34.5%). Recent tracking shows daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, producing three-day totals squarely in those bands during routine periods without major launches, trials, or platform controversies. With no high-profile events scheduled for June 18-20 that would typically trigger spikes, the lower-probability tails (<40 or 90+) reflect limited expected variance. Polymarket participants treat the ranges as a real-money aggregation of observed behavior rather than a forecast, leaving room for short-term fluctuations in engagement or news cycles to shift volume modestly within the favored window.