Recent inflation readings near 3.7% year-over-year and resilient economic growth have anchored trader expectations for tighter monetary policy, driving the 67.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. The September 16 decision to lift the federal funds target range to 3.75-4% under Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a more hawkish reaction function amid elevated price pressures and geopolitical risks. With the labor market holding steady near 4.1% unemployment and Treasury yields reflecting higher rate expectations, markets price limited scope for cuts or holds. Key upcoming catalysts include October CPI and employment data plus the October 27-28 FOMC decision, which could refine the path to the year-end dot plot.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於25 bps increase 68%
無變動 30%
25 bps decrease 1.8%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$1,142,425 交易量
$1,142,425 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
無變動
30%
25 bps increase
68%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 68%
無變動 30%
25 bps decrease 1.8%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
$1,142,425 交易量
$1,142,425 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$192,122 交易量
<1%
25 bps decrease
$250,251 交易量
2%
無變動
$218,147 交易量
30%
25 bps increase
$301,558 交易量
68%
50+ bps increase
$180,347 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings near 3.7% year-over-year and resilient economic growth have anchored trader expectations for tighter monetary policy, driving the 67.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. The September 16 decision to lift the federal funds target range to 3.75-4% under Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a more hawkish reaction function amid elevated price pressures and geopolitical risks. With the labor market holding steady near 4.1% unemployment and Treasury yields reflecting higher rate expectations, markets price limited scope for cuts or holds. Key upcoming catalysts include October CPI and employment data plus the October 27-28 FOMC decision, which could refine the path to the year-end dot plot.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,142,425結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings near 3.7% year-over-year and resilient economic growth have anchored trader expectations for tighter monetary policy, driving the 67.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. The September 16 decision to lift the federal funds target range to 3.75-4% under Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a more hawkish reaction function amid elevated price pressures and geopolitical risks. With the labor market holding steady near 4.1% unemployment and Treasury yields reflecting higher rate expectations, markets price limited scope for cuts or holds. Key upcoming catalysts include October CPI and employment data plus the October 27-28 FOMC decision, which could refine the path to the year-end dot plot.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$1,142,425結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRecent inflation readings near 3.7% year-over-year and resilient economic growth have anchored trader expectations for tighter monetary policy, driving the 67.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. The September 16 decision to lift the federal funds target range to 3.75-4% under Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a more hawkish reaction function amid elevated price pressures and geopolitical risks. With the labor market holding steady near 4.1% unemployment and Treasury yields reflecting higher rate expectations, markets price limited scope for cuts or holds. Key upcoming catalysts include October CPI and employment data plus the October 27-28 FOMC decision, which could refine the path to the year-end dot plot.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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