Recent labor market stability and moderating but still elevated inflation readings have driven trader consensus toward the Pause-Hike-Hike sequence at 55.1% implied probability for the October-through-January FOMC decisions. Market participants appear to anticipate a measured policy stance initially, followed by two 25-basis-point hikes as growth remains resilient and price pressures persist above target. The closely contested Pause-Hike-Pause outcome at 41.0% reflects uncertainty over the final meeting’s path. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC statement, January CPI release, and nonfarm payrolls data, which could alter rate expectations and Treasury yield curves if they deviate from current forecasts.