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政治·主要

FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者

icon for FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者
政治·主要

FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者

Marcus Carter 32%

Thomas Chalifoux 29%

Justin Story 12%

Jorge Malavet 8%

Polymarket

$18,945 交易量

Marcus Carter 32%

Thomas Chalifoux 29%

Justin Story 12%

Jorge Malavet 8%

Polymarket

$18,945 交易量

Marcus Carter

$447 交易量

32%

Thomas Chalifoux

$928 交易量

29%

Justin Story

$7,622 交易量

23%

Jorge Malavet

$2,193 交易量

8%

霍華德·史蒂文·蘭斯

$7,756 交易量

5%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 9th Congressional District remains fluid, with trader consensus assigning Marcus Carter the highest implied probability at 43.5 percent amid fragmented support and no public polls. Thomas Chalifoux trails at 28.5 percent despite raising more than $2.3 million and pledging an additional $3 million in personal funds on May 11, a financial edge that has not yet consolidated primary voters. Justin Story sits at 25.5 percent on the strength of his military background as a retired Marine Corps officer and former F-18 pilot, while Jorge Malavet and Howard Steven Rance trail further behind. Recent American Patriot Executive Committee backing for Carter and the absence of decisive endorsements or surveys have kept probabilities tight, leaving room for late shifts driven by debates or additional organizational support before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$18,945
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 9th Congressional District remains fluid, with trader consensus assigning Marcus Carter the highest implied probability at 43.5 percent amid fragmented support and no public polls. Thomas Chalifoux trails at 28.5 percent despite raising more than $2.3 million and pledging an additional $3 million in personal funds on May 11, a financial edge that has not yet consolidated primary voters. Justin Story sits at 25.5 percent on the strength of his military background as a retired Marine Corps officer and former F-18 pilot, while Jorge Malavet and Howard Steven Rance trail further behind. Recent American Patriot Executive Committee backing for Carter and the absence of decisive endorsements or surveys have kept probabilities tight, leaving room for late shifts driven by debates or additional organizational support before primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$18,945
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marcus Carter" at 32%, followed by "Thomas Chalifoux" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者" has generated $18.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者" is "Marcus Carter" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09共和黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.