2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？

2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？ — 討論

iutwpfal · 2026-07-23T22:45:48.469Z

關於2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

$60,210 交易量

2026-12-31

55% 以上

$15,464 交易量

86%

60% 以上

$23,907 交易量

54%

65% 以上

$17,330 交易量

16%

70% 以上

$2,505 交易量

75%+

$1,004 交易量

$60,210 交易量

55% 以上

$15,464 交易量

86%

60% 以上

$23,907 交易量

54%

65% 以上

$17,330 交易量

16%

70% 以上

$2,505 交易量

75%+

$1,004 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "55% 以上" at 86%, followed by "60% 以上" at 55%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" has generated $60.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" is "55% 以上" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "60% 以上" at 55%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $60.2K traded on “2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 86¢ for "55% 以上" in the "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 86% chance that "55% 以上" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 86¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 14¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？

2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數？" prediction market?

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