**Clear, dry conditions under high pressure are positioning a daytime high of 13–14 °C as the most probable outcome for Buenos Aires on 22 August 2026.** Multiple forecast models, including those from the National Weather Service equivalents and private providers, show light westerly winds, minimal cloud cover, and no precipitation, allowing typical late-winter radiative warming to produce a peak temperature near 13 °C (roughly 55 °F) during the afternoon hours. Current model consensus places the high in a narrow band around this value, consistent with climatological norms for late August when average highs hover near 13–15 °C. The market’s heavy weighting on 14 °C (55.5 %) alongside meaningful shares for 13 °C and 15 °C reflects traders’ assessment of small forecast uncertainties—such as minor wind shifts or boundary-layer mixing—that could nudge the exact maximum by 1 °C in either direction. Recent runs have shown little volatility, supporting the concentrated probability mass between 13–15 °C and very low odds on extremes below 12 °C or above 16 °C.