**Recent official forecasts from MetService indicate a daily maximum of 9°C for Wellington on August 4 under southerly winds, following warmer northerly conditions that produced 12–15°C highs on August 2–3.** This pattern reflects typical winter variability in the region, where southerly flows often suppress temperatures below the August average of around 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for June–August assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures overall, consistent with the market’s concentration on 9–11°C outcomes. Model consensus and observed wind shifts support the current implied probabilities, though short-term forecast updates from monitoring agencies could still adjust the expected maximum before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
8月4日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
10°C 50%
11°C 27%
9°C 21%
7°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
21%
10°C
50%
11°C
27%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
2%
10°C 50%
11°C 27%
9°C 21%
7°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
4°C or below
$378 交易量
<1%
5°C
$368 交易量
<1%
6°C
$212 交易量
<1%
7°C
$20 交易量
4%
8°C
$7 交易量
4%
9°C
$59 交易量
21%
10°C
$89 交易量
50%
11°C
$43 交易量
27%
12°C
$12 交易量
4%
13°C
$27 交易量
2%
14°C or higher
$20 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService indicate a daily maximum of 9°C for Wellington on August 4 under southerly winds, following warmer northerly conditions that produced 12–15°C highs on August 2–3.** This pattern reflects typical winter variability in the region, where southerly flows often suppress temperatures below the August average of around 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for June–August assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures overall, consistent with the market’s concentration on 9–11°C outcomes. Model consensus and observed wind shifts support the current implied probabilities, though short-term forecast updates from monitoring agencies could still adjust the expected maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,235結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from MetService indicate a daily maximum of 9°C for Wellington on August 4 under southerly winds, following warmer northerly conditions that produced 12–15°C highs on August 2–3.** This pattern reflects typical winter variability in the region, where southerly flows often suppress temperatures below the August average of around 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for June–August assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures overall, consistent with the market’s concentration on 9–11°C outcomes. Model consensus and observed wind shifts support the current implied probabilities, though short-term forecast updates from monitoring agencies could still adjust the expected maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,235結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Recent official forecasts from MetService indicate a daily maximum of 9°C for Wellington on August 4 under southerly winds, following warmer northerly conditions that produced 12–15°C highs on August 2–3.** This pattern reflects typical winter variability in the region, where southerly flows often suppress temperatures below the August average of around 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for June–August assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures overall, consistent with the market’s concentration on 9–11°C outcomes. Model consensus and observed wind shifts support the current implied probabilities, though short-term forecast updates from monitoring agencies could still adjust the expected maximum before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions