**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月23日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
7月23日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
14°C 63%
15°C 19%
13°C 19%
12°C 1.0%
最新
$19,967 交易量
最新
$19,967 交易量
2026-07-23
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
19%
14°C
63%
15°C
19%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 63%
15°C 19%
13°C 19%
12°C 1.0%
最新
$19,967 交易量
最新
$19,967 交易量
2026-07-23
8°C or below
$137 交易量
<1%
9°C
$276 交易量
<1%
10°C
$1,402 交易量
<1%
11°C
$1,367 交易量
<1%
12°C
$1,210 交易量
1%
13°C
$2,427 交易量
19%
14°C
$6,448 交易量
63%
15°C
$3,476 交易量
19%
16°C
$1,413 交易量
1%
17°C
$1,487 交易量
<1%
18°C or higher
$323 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$19,967結束日期
2026-07-23市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$19,967結束日期
2026-07-23市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET**Wellington's July winter climatology centers daily maxima around 12–13°C, with 14°C emerging as the modal outcome in recent model guidance.** Short-range forecasts from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather project a July 23 high near 13°C under typical southerly flow and moderate wind, while seasonal NIWA outlooks indicate near-average or slightly below-average temperatures for the Wellington region. Trader consensus at 51.5% on 14°C and 21.5% on 15°C reflects the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble runs and the potential for brief diurnal warming or measurement timing effects at official stations. Lower probabilities cluster around 12–13°C as the most likely baseline given persistent cool air masses, with tails below 11°C or above 16°C discounted by current steering patterns and lack of strong high-pressure blocking. Updated model runs and any MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts shifting implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions