SpaceX's aggressive launch cadence through mid-May, with multiple Falcon 9 missions already completed from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg alongside preparations for Starship Flight 12, underpins trader sentiment favoring 12 or 13 total launches by month-end. Official schedules list several Starlink deployments, a Globalstar mission, and the Starship test through late May, supported by reusable booster turnaround times and high historical success rates exceeding 95 percent for Falcon 9. The narrow gap between 12 (47.5 percent implied probability) and 13 (51.5 percent) reflects uncertainty around final weather windows at Florida and California sites, potential range conflicts, and any last-minute technical holds that could shift one additional mission into June.