Recent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm that Saudel underwent rapid intensification, reaching very strong typhoon status with peak maximum sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa. Warm sea surface temperatures, favorable atmospheric conditions, and low wind shear enabled this strengthening over the western Pacific before gradual weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and landfall in China. Trader consensus at 99.4% for very strong typhoon reflects these verified intensity metrics. A realistic challenge would require revised post-storm reanalysis showing lower peak winds, though current data make this unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於熱帶風暴沙德爾會有多強？
熱帶風暴沙德爾會有多強？
非常強颱風 99.4%
猛烈颱風 <1%
熱帶風暴 <1%
強烈熱帶風暴 <1%
$10,091 交易量
$10,091 交易量
2026-08-31
熱帶風暴
<1%
強烈熱帶風暴
<1%
颱風
<1%
非常強颱風
99%
猛烈颱風
<1%
非常強颱風 99.4%
猛烈颱風 <1%
熱帶風暴 <1%
強烈熱帶風暴 <1%
$10,091 交易量
$10,091 交易量
2026-08-31
熱帶風暴
$663 交易量
<1%
強烈熱帶風暴
$606 交易量
<1%
颱風
$1,570 交易量
<1%
非常強颱風
$3,300 交易量
99%
猛烈颱風
$3,953 交易量
<1%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm that Saudel underwent rapid intensification, reaching very strong typhoon status with peak maximum sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa. Warm sea surface temperatures, favorable atmospheric conditions, and low wind shear enabled this strengthening over the western Pacific before gradual weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and landfall in China. Trader consensus at 99.4% for very strong typhoon reflects these verified intensity metrics. A realistic challenge would require revised post-storm reanalysis showing lower peak winds, though current data make this unlikely.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
交易量
$10,091結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETThis market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm that Saudel underwent rapid intensification, reaching very strong typhoon status with peak maximum sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa. Warm sea surface temperatures, favorable atmospheric conditions, and low wind shear enabled this strengthening over the western Pacific before gradual weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and landfall in China. Trader consensus at 99.4% for very strong typhoon reflects these verified intensity metrics. A realistic challenge would require revised post-storm reanalysis showing lower peak winds, though current data make this unlikely.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
交易量
$10,091結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETRecent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm that Saudel underwent rapid intensification, reaching very strong typhoon status with peak maximum sustained winds near 90 knots and central pressure around 940 hPa. Warm sea surface temperatures, favorable atmospheric conditions, and low wind shear enabled this strengthening over the western Pacific before gradual weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and landfall in China. Trader consensus at 99.4% for very strong typhoon reflects these verified intensity metrics. A realistic challenge would require revised post-storm reanalysis showing lower peak winds, though current data make this unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions