Illinois’s 4th Congressional District remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the Midwest, with a partisan voting index that has consistently delivered double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the seat, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia—his former chief of staff—secured the nomination without opposition in the March 17 primary and carries endorsements from the Congressional Progressive Caucus and local party leaders. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced from an uncontested primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where recent Democratic performance has exceeded 65 percent. The November 3 general election will resolve the market, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s entrenched voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Late developments such as major scandals, unexpected independent candidacies consolidating opposition, or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$46,392 交易量
$46,392 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
96%
共和黨
4%
$46,392 交易量
$46,392 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$31,938 交易量
96%
共和黨
$14,454 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois’s 4th Congressional District remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the Midwest, with a partisan voting index that has consistently delivered double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the seat, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia—his former chief of staff—secured the nomination without opposition in the March 17 primary and carries endorsements from the Congressional Progressive Caucus and local party leaders. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced from an uncontested primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where recent Democratic performance has exceeded 65 percent. The November 3 general election will resolve the market, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s entrenched voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Late developments such as major scandals, unexpected independent candidacies consolidating opposition, or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$46,392結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois’s 4th Congressional District remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the Midwest, with a partisan voting index that has consistently delivered double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the seat, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia—his former chief of staff—secured the nomination without opposition in the March 17 primary and carries endorsements from the Congressional Progressive Caucus and local party leaders. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced from an uncontested primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where recent Democratic performance has exceeded 65 percent. The November 3 general election will resolve the market, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s entrenched voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Late developments such as major scandals, unexpected independent candidacies consolidating opposition, or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$46,392結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois’s 4th Congressional District remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the Midwest, with a partisan voting index that has consistently delivered double-digit margins for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the seat, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia—his former chief of staff—secured the nomination without opposition in the March 17 primary and carries endorsements from the Congressional Progressive Caucus and local party leaders. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced from an uncontested primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where recent Democratic performance has exceeded 65 percent. The November 3 general election will resolve the market, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s entrenched voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Late developments such as major scandals, unexpected independent candidacies consolidating opposition, or unusually high turnout shifts could theoretically narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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