Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$12,709 交易量
$12,709 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
87%
民主黨
10%
$12,709 交易量
$12,709 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$3,841 交易量
87%
民主黨
$8,868 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$12,709結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,709結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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